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Chemical and catalytic upcycling processes could help realize a circular plastics economy, but current models for testing mechanistic hypotheses and designing catalysts remain primitive. This work shows how proposed catalytic mechanisms can be incorporated into population balance models to predict the time evolution of molecular weight distributions. We develop models for homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysts, including catalysts that cut at chain ends and catalysts that cut at random locations. For heterogeneous catalysts, we illustrate the effect of adsorption constants that depend on polymer chain length. We discuss ongoing efforts and challenges in measuring and modeling the time evolving molecular weight distributions in polymer upcycling processes.

Graphical abstract: Population balance models for polymer upcycling: signatures of the mechanism in the molecular weight evolution

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