Green ethylene production in the UK by 2035: a techno-economic assessment

Abstract

Olefins production in the UK is the most emission-intensive sector of the chemical industry. Bringing thermocatalytic and electrocatalytic processes together, this paper compares nine process routes for green ethylene production from air-captured CO₂ and off-shore wind electricity in order to displace fossil-based ethylene, with a particular focus on technology readiness for near-future deployment. The methanol-mediated thermocatalytic route has the lowest projected levelised cost at £2900 per ton of ethylene by 2035, closely followed by direct and tandem CO₂ electroreduction routes in the range £2900–3200. The price of green ethylene at three times or more its current market price is confirmed through a sensitivity analysis varying the levelised cost of electricity, stack cost, and market price of propylene or oxygen simultaneously. While these green ethylene production processes would be carbon negative from a cradle-to-gate viewpoint, displacing a conventional ethane cracker with annual production capacity of 800 kt could consume as much as 46–66 TW h of renewable electricity, which is a major barrier to deployment.