The effects of interaction between particulate matter and temperature on mortality in Beijing, China

Abstract

Background: the effects of interaction between temperature and inhalable particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm, PM₁₀) on mortality have been examined in some previous studies, but the results were inconsistent. This study aims to explore whether the effects of PM₁₀ on daily non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were modified by temperature levels in Beijing from 2006 to 2009. Methods: we applied a bivariate response surface model and temperature-stratified model based on time-series Poisson generalized additive models (GAMs) to examine the interactive effects in single- and two-pollutant models. The modification of age and gender was examined in subgroup analyses. Results: the median of temperature (15.9 °C) and visualized turning point (20 °C) were chosen as cut-offs to define the temperature strata as two levels (low and high). Results showed that the effect estimates of PM₁₀ were stronger at the high temperature level for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality than at the low temperature level. When controlling the moving average lag of temperature for 14 days, the effect estimates per 10 μg m⁻³ increase in PM₁₀ for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality increased 0.14% (95% CI: 0.05, 0.22), 0.12% (95% CI: 0.02, 0.23) and 0.14% (95% CI: −0.06, 0.34) when the temperature was low and 0.24% (95% CI: 0.12, 0.35), 0.17% (95% CI: 0.01, 0.34) and 0.45% (95% CI: 0.13, 0.78) at the high temperature level, respectively. In the two-pollutant model, the effects of PM₁₀ were attenuated at both high and low temperatures at all lags after adjusting SO₂ and NO₂. The PM₁₀ effects were stronger at the high temperature level for females and elderly people (≥65 years old). Conclusion: the findings suggest that daily mortality attributed to PM₁₀ might be modified by temperature. The interaction between air pollution and global climate change has potential strategy and policy implications.