Future costs of power-to-liquid sustainable aviation fuels produced from hybrid solar PV-wind plants in Europe

Abstract

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) produced from renewable electricity via Power-to-Liquids (PtL), also called e-jet fuel, can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions of aircraft by up to 90%, but they are markedly more expensive than fossil jet fuel. Their future production costs are particularly dependent on the cost of renewable electricity and, to date, not analysed with high geographical scope and resolution. This study assesses the future production costs of PtL-SAF produced via electrolysis and Fischer–Tropsch synthesis from hybrid solar PV-wind power plants and CO₂ captured from ambient air. At 5390 locations across Europe, plant configurations have been optimised considering spatial and temporal restrictions on electricity generation. Thus, cost-optimal production regions are identified for 2030, 2040 and 2050. By 2030, PtL-SAF costs in Europe could already be as low as 1.21 EUR per litre (1510 EUR per tonne) and decrease to 0.71 EUR per litre (880 EUR per tonne) by 2050. If the blending mandate for renewable fuels of non-biological origin within the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation were to be supplied purely from PtL-SAF production regions within Europe, the average PtL-SAF cost would rank at 1.22 EUR per litre (1525 EUR per tonne) in 2030 – 3 times the historical market price of fossil jet fuel – and at 0.81 EUR per litre (1000 EUR per tonne) by 2050. Consequently, the impact on ticket prices would be less than 1% by 2030, 3% by 2040, and 7% by 2050.